Florida’s budget surplus is still there, but will likely be smaller

Posted on: August 18th, 2023

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Economists wrestled with how higher interest rates, tourism slowdowns and inflation would affect the housing market and consumer spending in the months to come.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida legislators are anticipated to have a sizable budget surplus to work with next year, although it is unlikely to rival the large cushions of extra cash that allowed Gov. Ron DeSantis and lawmakers to set aside billions in extra spending on tax cuts and road building programs.

Economists met on Friday at the Capitol, where they drew up a new forecast that shows that Florida’s main budget account is expected to wind up with $2.77 billion more than anticipated between now and 2025.

But at the same time, economists are expecting a 3.5 percent decline in overall tax collections in the current fiscal year — which runs until next June 30 — due to tax cuts and a slowdown of spending that had been associated with Hurricane Ian recovery efforts. Tax collections are then expected to grow nearly 4 percent the following fiscal year.

One big notable change in the new estimates: State economists no longer anticipate a recession in their forecast, a factor that caused them to temper the last round in March.